This is the beginning of a seventh wave of coronavirus. Some indicators warn. “There is a resumption of the epidemic and it is completely unexpected compared to the season” the infectious disease specialist said last weekend Benjamin Davido, Covid-19 contact person at the Garches hospital in Hauts-de-Seine, interviewed by Franceinfo. Since the beginning of June, the number of positive cases has increased, as has the number of hospitalizations. This last
100,000 cases in July?
On June 1, over 25,000 new contaminations were registered. 15 days later, that’s double that. The average for the last week has returned to above 50,000 cases per day, for the first time since May 2. In the past 24 hours, 95,217 cases have been identified, up 46% from last Tuesday.
If the curve continues to advance, the threshold of 100,000 cases per day could be crossed at the beginning of the school holidays, in early July. By way of comparison, compared to the same period last year, there were fewer than 5,000 daily cases and the peak of the delta wave was supposed to be reached in July.
The number of tests carried out increases
In two weeks, the number of tests increased by 26%. Almost 1.3 million PCR and antigen tests were validated between 6 and 12 June, specifies the Department of Statistics (Drees) in a press release. This is three times less than at the end of March. Nearly ten million tests had been carried out during the Christmas holidays.
We also see, thanks to the curve below, that all age groups are affected by this growth of the epidemic, both the youngest and the oldest. First the people under 50 were infected, then the positivity rate increased among the over 60s.
Increase in hospitalizations
According to data from Public Health France, the consequences of this increase in cases are still limited for hospitals. However, hospitalizations are increasing: + 14% in the last two weeks. Three weeks ago there were on average less than 400 hospitalizations a day, today they are almost 600. The latest peak dates back to April, with over 25 thousand hospitalizations, of which just under 850 in intensive care.
Two explanations: first there is a delay between contamination and the development of a severe form of the disease, and then the effectiveness of the vaccine against severe forms of Covid-19. The number of ICU admissions also remained stable.
The death toll is also not increasing. At the end of last week, between 40 and 50 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded each day. Between the end of April and the beginning of May there were more than 100 deaths per day.
How to explain this increase
If the virus is spreading again at high speed, it is due to several variants of Omicron: BA.4, BA.5 and BA2.12.1. “The epidemic curve is exponential in France” notes on franceinfo Antoine Flahaultepidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva. “With the current new variants, which are more contaminating, from 10 to 15%, the epidemic finds fresh blood even if we have passed the cold season period” analysis on his part, the infectious disease specialist Benjamin Davido.
According to Guillaume Rozier, ffounder of the Covid Tracker site, on Twitter : “We are witnessing a similar epidemic increase in our neighbors (Italy, Germany, etc.). Some countries have already overcome this wave (Portugal, South Africa) which has reached, at its peak, half the number of cases compared to the Micron wave. , but a close number of hospitalizations “.
For its part, the governmentdon’t talk about waves “ at this point, but “stay extremely vigilant “ its spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire said Tuesday, announcing “a communication to the Council of Ministers on 22 June” on the measures that the executive intends to maintain after the end of the regime of exit from the state of health emergency, scheduled for 31 July.
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